With most of the developed world on lockdown, and markets and economies paralyzed until there is a material decline in new coronavirus cases, i.e., until we slide “over the hump” of the coronavirus curve, the biggest question – and variable – in assessing the economic damage unleashed by the covid-19 virus is the length of the lockdowns now in force, with Deutsche Bank’s Luke Templeman pointing out that “politicians and health officials have discussed dates ranging anywhere from weeks to over a year.”
In an attempt to answer this most important for capital markets question, namely when will the civic and economic restrictions begin to be lifted in various key countries, Deutsche Bank provides some estimates largely based on the experience of the lockdown and reopening in China’s Hubei province.
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WNU Editor: I do not share Deutche Banks view on when these lockdowns will be lifted. They based their projections on what is happening in China, and I frankly do not believe what China is reporting. There is also the issue of their being no vaccine and/or no medical remedy to treat this disease, meaning that we are probably going to be facing repeat outbreaks in the future.