What are the next steps for Guaidó after the failed humanitarian operation?
“I will return by the airport,” responded the leader of the Venezuelan National Assembly and proclaimed the president in charge, Juan Guaidó, during a press conference in the border city of Cúcuta, Colombia. And is that after the end of the failed humanitarian operation that failed to internalize the oil country tons of food and medicine, many wonders how Guaidó will concretely return to Venezuela.
The doubts began on the eve of Saturday, February 23, when Nicolás Maduro, partial-recognized President, imposed on Guaidó the prohibition of leaving the country and froze his assets. Therefore, his visit to the border area on the Colombian side was a sign of contempt.
Already at the beginning of February, the Mandatory had issued a warning: “What will happen when the 30th day is completed? Will it continue with its virtual mandate? Until when? Until 2025 too? Or until it ends in the jail by mandate of the Supreme Court of Justice of Venezuela?”, said. The word “jail” is one of the ones that the experts shuffle between the possible destinations that Guaidó may find upon returning to Venezuela.
“The government may want to apply the law irregularly, just as when they told him he had roots,” said former Foreign Minister Heraldo Muñoz on Sunday. That is why the future of Guaidó, the figure that put his political capital to the test on Saturday, is still unknown.
“It’s good for him to come back, definitely, if he does not come back, his leadership will decrease over time,” explained academician Guillermo Holzmann. “It was thought that the income of aid in a peaceful way was going to generate division in the Armed Forces, an unsustainable pressure from the social point of view for Maduro and, consequently, his resignation, and none of those things happened,” he adds.
“What did happen was that the repression was shown, the entry was prevented and it was reaffirmed that the Maduro regime has a specific characteristic of totalitarian government, in that perspective, Venezuela is like the 21st century Cuba,” he adds. That is why, he says, the meeting of the Lima Group in Bogotá on Monday will be significant.
”If we compare Maduro on the one hand and his violent reaction (…) with Guaidó, who does it peacefully, offering an amnesty, defending democracy and the protection of Human Rights, I think it contrasts on its own.“
”His leadership at the international level depends on the degree of unity and cohesion that exists in the meeting, meaning that he will have to put on the table new political and diplomatic options, given that all countries are not in favor of military intervention.“
Meanwhile, for the academic Samuel Fernández, that Guaidó ”has been enthroned as the figure supported by some fifty countries as the legitimate president in charge against Maduro is a very significant advance from the international point of view“. ”If we compare Maduro on the one hand and his violent reaction, full of insults, and almost with a show, dancing, while giving the order to suppress the entrance of the aid, with Guaidó, who does it in a peaceful way, offering an amnesty, defending democracy and the protection of Human Rights, I think it contrasts by itself, “he says.
However, the figure of Guaidó is also somewhat weakened by the fact that the delivery of the aid has not been possible. ”The Armed Forces, which he called for to leave Maduro, did not do so, and the Maduro regime is still clinging to power,“ he said.
Muñoz says that only hurt Maduro. ”He assumes a much greater responsibility, because a president in charge who is recognized by more than 60 countries and who is imprisoned, lights up the situation much more and raises the pressure“.
Holzmann agrees with the scenario. ”He would become a martyr or a victim, he is not only the leader of the opposition: he is the president of the National Assembly, which legitimacy gives Guaidó the specific weight and for that reason he cannot remain outside. political point of view, its purpose must be to get to Venezuela and to maintain that cohabitation, which is a permanent pressure on Maduro,“ he says.
For Fernández, Maduro would commit a ”very serious error“ if he is imprisoned. ”It would be crossing a limit that the countries that support it would not allow,“ he says. ”It would not help his cause and it would create many more problems than he already has,” he concluded.