(Bloomberg) — Xi Jinping’s Chinese Communist Party has threatened to invade Taiwan for more than seven decades. Now fears are growing among analysts, officials and investors that it might actually follow through over the next few years, potentially triggering a war with the U.S.
In September, People’s Liberation Army aircraft repeatedly breached the median line in the Taiwan Strait, eliminating a de facto buffer zone that has kept peace for decades. The party-run Global Times newspaper has given a picture of what could come, urging China’s air force to patrol the skies over Taiwan and “achieve reunification through military means” if it fires any shots. Taiwan announced it would only shoot if attacked.
Despite the saber rattling, China and Taiwan have many reasons to avoid a war that could kill tens of thousands, devastate their economies and potentially lead to a nuclear conflict with the U.S. and its allies. The overwhelming consensus remains that Beijing will continue efforts to control Taiwan through military threats, diplomatic isolation and economic incentives. Equities in Taiwan have recently hit record highs.
WNU Editor: If China makes the decision to invade Taiwan, it would take a month or two for Beijing to deploy the necessary assets, and the world would know very quickly on what China’s intentions are. This will not be a quick and surprise attack. Taiwan would have more than ample time to mobilize its reserves, and the U.S. with its allies would then prepare themselves to assist Taiwan in the event of an invasion. This invasion will set-off a bloodbath because the defenders will be ready, and the resultant cost to China to achieve its objectives will be incredibly high and long lasting.