As political shifts in the United States threaten to hinder anti-narcotics efforts in Latin America and the Caribbean, organized crime is well-positioned to capitalize on new markets, drug manufacturing processes, and technology, two recent reports revealed.

The reports, from the governments of the United States and the European Union, show synthetic drugs are continuing to evolve fast, and that cocaine flows to Europe have been largely unaffected by increases in seizures and the targeting of trafficking networks. Furthermore, organized crime groups are increasingly operating online, with authorities struggling to keep up. 

The release of these reports comes amid political uncertainty around the future of efforts to combat organized crime around Latin America and the Caribbean. While promising a heavy-handed crackdown on fentanyl trafficking and crime groups, US President Donald Trump has pushed policies that could instead help criminal groups thrive. His administration has suspended foreign aid that funded anti-narcotics programs in countries like Colombia and Mexico, walked back anti-money laundering initiatives, and deported a key MS13 leader to El Salvador, raising questions about the government’s commitment to fighting the gang.

SEE ALSO: How Precursor Chemicals Sustain Mexico’s Synthetic Drug Trade

The first report, the United States Department of State’s International Narcotics Control Strategy Report (INCSR), is published annually in March and reflects findings from the previous year. It explores drug trafficking dynamics in various countries, focusing on their impact on US drug markets.

The second report, released on March 20, is the European Union’s Serious and Organised Crime Threat Assessment (EU-SOCTA), which is published every four years. The report, authored by Europol, the EU’s law enforcement agency, gives a broad overview of the wide range of organized crime threats to Europe, including on how organized crime in Latin America and Europe are interrelated.

Below, InSight Crime explores the main findings from these reports, providing an inside look into how the governments of the world’s two biggest drug consumers, the US and Europe, view organized crime dynamics in Latin America and the Caribbean.

The Unique Threat of Synthetic Drugs

The presence and strength of fentanyl in the United States may be plateauing, but the rapid evolution of synthetic drugs continues to worry authorities, the reports revealed.

Fentanyl seizures in the United States dropped 19% in fiscal year 2024 (October 2023 through September 2024) compared to the same period the year prior, the INCSR highlighted. This was accompanied by a 17% drop in fentanyl overdoses between July 2023 and July 2024. 

A multitude of factors, including greater controls imposed by the Sinaloa Cartel on fentanyl production and more consistent purity levels, could explain the drop in seizures and overdoses, InSight Crime investigations have revealed.

Still, the INCSR stated that “the significant threat posed by synthetic drugs continues to rise globally, and synthetic opioids remain the primary drug threat to the United States.”

SEE ALSO: The Cocaine Pipeline to Europe

While authorities crack down on a specific precursor chemicals used to make synthetic drugs, traffickers are finding new ways to make methamphetamine, fentanyl, and other drugs, as well as new synthetic substances to peddle. 

“Criminal organizations adapt to evade these controls,” the INCSR added. “Because the chemicals needed to produce [synthetic drugs] vary so greatly, they are much harder to control.”

There’s little domestic market for fentanyl consumption in Europe, according to the SOCTA. Nevertheless, criminal organizations have taken advantage of lax regulations in countries like Germany to source chemicals for fentanyl production in Mexico, a 2024 InSight Crime investigation found. This reflects a broader trend of synthetic drug trafficking networks broadening the source of their supplies to stay one step ahead of authorities.

The INCSR’s findings also show how political changes in the United States could further put authorities on the back foot in the synthetic drugs fight. 

The report highlighted the success of a US-backed United Nations program in Mexico that had “contributed to the increased seizures of illicit goods, including narcotics, precursor chemicals, and counterfeit products at Mexico’s busiest maritime port.” However, the Trump administration has suspended funding to that same program, according to a February 24 Reuters report. 

Cocaine Pipeline to Europe Strong as Ever

Despite heightened law enforcement scrutiny, traffickers continue to satisfy ever-greater demand for cocaine in Europe, both reports found. 

“Over the past two decades, the demand for cocaine in Europe has surged, likely even exceeding that in the United States,” the INCSR highlighted.

InSight Crime has extensively covered how Latin American cocaine trafficking networks have built a cocaine pipeline connecting South America’s coca-producing nations to Europe’s consumer markets.

To combat this, European authorities have increased cooperation with their Latin American counterparts, seizing massive cocaine shipments passing through major European ports like Rotterdam and Antwerp, and dismantling the trafficking networks responsible. The crackdown, however, has not prevented the drug from reaching Europe.

“While there was a drop in maritime seizures in some major entry points in the EU in 2024, the volume of cocaine entering the EU has likely not decreased,” the SOCTA found. A study published March 19 by the European Union Drugs Agency (EUDA) supported this claim, finding increases in cocaine residues in the wastewater in 39 of the 72 European cities included in the study.

“Instead, trafficking routes and modi operandi are further diversifying,” the SOCTA added.

InSight Crime’s recent reporting supports this. More decentralized and resilient trafficking networks mean new members and leaders can easily replace those who have been arrested. These networks have diversified cocaine routes, choosing to import drugs through secondary ports in countries like Russia, Sweden, and Portugal to avoid authorities. They have also used innovative trafficking methods, increasingly turning to narco subs, the chemical impregnation of cocaine in consumer goods, and trafficking coca paste or cocaine base that is then processed into cocaine once in Europe.

Cyber Crime: The New Frontier

Both organized crime groups and law enforcement are increasingly operating online and using artificial intelligence (AI) in their operations, the reports showed. Criminals, however, maintain the advantage in crime’s digitization.

“Emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence…expand the speed, scale, and sophistication of organized crime,” the SOCTA reads, while highlighting the proliferation of online fraud and for-profit cyberattacks in Europe as examples.

Organized crime’s digital shift in Europe reflects a global trend that has also affected Latin America and the Caribbean. For example, in Peru, fraud groups have utilized deepfake technology to improve extortion scams, while criminal groups in Brazil have increasingly turned to online scams and thefts.

The INCSR report highlighted how anti-drug authorities are leveraging AI to combat drug traffickers, referencing Dutch port authorities’ use of AI imaging to detect cocaine in cargo containers. Around Latin America, security forces have also attempted to implement AI-driven models to predict violent crimes before they happen.

Even so, Latin American authorities will struggle to keep pace with criminals’ adoption of new technologies. Officials usually have to jump through bureaucratic hurdles and wait for official approval to adopt new tools and methods. Authorities from different nations also struggle to coordinate efforts to combat cyber crime groups across jurisdictions, while such criminals are not restricted by borders. 

Featured image: A Mexican law enforcement official examines seized packages of fentanyl and other drugs. Credit: Salwan Georges/Washington Post/Getty Images

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