Migrant smuggling dynamics in northern Colombia are shifting in response to a US immigration crackdown, potentially disrupting a lucrative revenue stream for the powerful crime group known as the Gaitanist Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia – AGC).
The number of migrants crossing the Darién Gap between Colombia and Panama plummeted to just over a dozen per day in February, as fears of stricter US immigration policies under the administration of President Donald Trump have deterred new crossings. Only 408 migrants crossed the Darién Gap in February — a staggering drop from the more than 37,000 who made the journey during the same month last year.
But the slowdown is not just a reduction in numbers; migrants across Central America and Mexico are abandoning their plans to reach the United States and instead heading south, returning to their countries of origin.
The vast majority of those returning are Venezuelans, according to Colombia’s Foreign Ministry, which reported that 1,885 migrants arrived in Colombia from Panama between January 15 and February 28. In March, the flow has accelerated, with more than 200 migrants per day traveling by boat from Panama to Colombia, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Meanwhile, the number of migrants entering Panama from the north is also rising, with about 3,100 people crossing the Costa Rican border last week, according to Panamanian authorities.
After entering Panama, migrants make their way to the port of Colón, where large boats take them to La Miel, a town close to the border with Colombia. Migrants are charged $230 per person for the journey. From there, they transfer to smaller boats to reach Capurganá, Colombia, then travel by motorcycle to Acandí, and finally take another boat to Necoclí — the point where many previously began their journey north across the Darién.
InSight Crime Analysis
The plummeting number of migrants traveling through the Darién could lead to a sharp decline in profits for the AGC, which maintains a monopoly on migrant smuggling operations in the region that were worth tens of millions of dollars a year at their peak.
The group’s primary source of profit came from extorting both formal and informal businesses connected to the migration flow, including hotels, guides, restaurants, stores, and transporters. Additionally, the AGC earned direct profits by facilitating the movement of migrants through its zone of control, placing their earnings between $17.5 million and $25 million by 2023, according to InSight Crime’s estimates.
However, the decline in migrant traffic through the Darién has put a dent in both formal and informal economies, resulting in a reduction of profits for the AGC.
“The economy of that area changed in recent years. An economic bubble was created that, when it burst, would bring a very bleak context,” said a person working for a state entity in the area, who requested to remain anonymous as they were not authorized to speak. Now, they added, that bubble has burst, hurting many who formerly profited off migrants.The increase in migrants heading south still is not large enough to compensate for the dropoff in northward flows.
“These are very small flows. From a business perspective, which is what these groups always see, it’s not an attractive phenomenon for them,” they said.
The AGC appears to be filling the gaps with other illegal economies. The group is increasing “collaboration” — their term for extortion — with other sectors, such as cattle ranchers, according to a local resident, who requested anonymity for security reasons.
The AGC needs consistent income to sustain an unrelenting war with their main enemy, the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional – ELN), for control of the department of Chocó, directly south of the Urabá region, which is home to important criminal economies such as illegal gold mining. The drop in migrant flows will likely shift the AGC’s focus back to drug trafficking through the Darién and the Colombian region of Urabá, which remains the group’s most important stronghold.
Featured image: Venezuelan and Colombian migrants heading south arrive on Panama’s Gardi Sugdub island. Credit: EFE
