Michelle Obama Beats Trump in Hypothetical 2024 Matchup

Politics USA World

Last Updated on July 4, 2024

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that former first lady Michelle Obama is the only hypothetical candidate to defeat former President Donald Trump.

The poll released just after the Trump-Biden presidential debate showed a whopping one-third of Democrats cheering for the president to drop out. Obama maintains a strong ten percentage points over both candidates. But, so far, the White House has denied any rumors of the president forfeiting his opportunity to run even amid his poor performance and evident cognitive decline.

Although the aggregate shows Trump up by 2.3 percentage points, this poll found both tied among registered voters after the debate, but in hypothetical Democratic matchups, only Obama prevailed against Trump.

  • 40% of registered voters said they would vote for Biden, and 40% said Trump.
  • 50% of registered voters said they would vote for Obama, while only 39% said they would vote for Trump.
  • Other Democratic hypotheticals performed either similarly or worse than Biden against Trump. Vice President Kamala Harris saw 42%, while Trump would defeat her at 43%. It was even worse for California Governor Gavin Newsom, who saw 39% of the total compared to Trump’s 42%. All other Democratic candidates had even worse results, between 34% and 39% to Trump’s 40% to 42% bracket.

Most voters were found to have unfavorable opinions on both candidates — Biden and Trump. Only Obama received a majority favorability. The other aforementioned candidates, besides Harris, had considerably lower favorability and even lower name recognition.

  • 42% of voters said they favor Trump, while 38% said the same of Biden. 56% stated an unfavorable opinion of Trump, while 60% said that of Biden.
  • In comparison, 55% of voters said they had a favorable opinion of Obama, while Harris fell to 40%.
  • Other Democratic hopefuls — Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Witmer, Ketuncky Governor Andy Beshear, and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker — all had significantly lower ratings along with a large portion of voters having never heard of them.

Under half of the voters said Trump should drop out, while more than half said Biden should forfeit. A higher amount of Democrats said Biden should drop out over Republicans who said Trump should drop out. The differences emerge even further by race and ethnicity.

  • 56% of Americans want Biden to drop out after the first presidential debate. Trump sits 10 points lower, with 46% saying he should drop out.
  • Only a mere 11% of Republicans said Trump should drop out following the debate, while 32% of Democrats feel the same about Biden.
  • 60% of independents said Biden should drop out after the debate, while 47% said Trump should, too.
  • 63% of White Americans said Biden should drop out, while 41% said Trump should. 67% of black Americans said Trump should drop out, while only 31% said Biden should. And about half of Hispanic Americans feel Trump (51%) and Biden (49%) should drop out.

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This Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted with a sample size of 892 registered voters — 348 Democrats, 322 Republicans and 303 independents. The margin of sampling error is plus or minor 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level for the entire sample of adults in the study.

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