
How Trump’s Team Could Impact Anti-Crime Efforts in LatAm

As the new Trump administration takes office, Latin America braces for shifts in US policy, with organized crime high on the agenda. Military strikes on Mexican criminals and a possible retaking of the Panama Canal have already featured in the incoming president’s rhetoric. Drawing from the first Trump administration and statements from his team of deputies, we look at how his second-term policies may shape up.
Guatemalan corruption fighters were facing a crisis in May 2018. US aid to an internationally supported anti-graft body known as CICIG had been frozen by Marco Rubio, the Republican senator recently named as US President-elect Donald Trump’s choice for secretary of state.
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The International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (Comisión Internacional contra la Impunidad en Guatemala — CICIG) was successful and popular. It had helped investigate and prosecute corruption schemes that reached as high as the president and vice-president’s office.
But CICIG’s work had generated enormous backlash from the corrupt networks it was helping expose. Rubio’s decision to hold up $6 million in US funding, citing questionable accusations of Russian influence over the commission, dealt a blow to the already vulnerable institution.
The funds were released several months later, but in the wake of the incident, Guatemala’s then-President Jimmy Morales and graft networks with military ties escalated attacks against CICIG. Backed by soldiers, and with tanks surrounding CICIG’s offices, Morales announced plans to oust the commission.
US support had been crucial for CICIG since its creation in the mid-2000s. But Trump, who was then serving his first term as president, did nothing to shield the commission from the onslaught. His administration appeared to prioritize Morales’ cooperation on stemming immigration over the Guatemalan president’s commitment to clean governance.
CICIG was shut down completely in 2019, setting up a major backsliding in terms of organized crime and corruption that continues to affect Guatemala today.
The CICIG saga provides an example of how the incoming Trump administration might handle similar issues of organized crime and corruption in the region upon returning to the White House on January 20.
Trump is assembling a team of loyalists and hardliners for top law enforcement, security, and foreign relations posts, who are likely to pursue a militaristic and, above all, transactional approach to fighting organized crime in Latin America and the Caribbean.
A Team of Loyalists
Trump famously prizes loyalty among his deputies, which means his team will likely focus much of their attention on two of the president-elect’s top concerns: drugs and immigration.
These issues put a lot of focus on Mexico and the southern US border – and on the possible use of the military, under Trump’s direct control as commander in chief, to combat organized crime.
Trump has expressed openness to carrying out military action in Mexico and some of his top deputies have advocated such a strategy.
Mike Waltz, a Republican congressman from Florida chosen as Trump’s national security advisor, has co-sponsored legislation that would authorize US military force against Mexican “cartels.” Trump’s choice for defense secretary, television news commentator Pete Hegseth, has also voiced support for “precision strikes” against crime groups involved in the drug trade.
SEE ALSO: Will Designating Mexican Crime Groups as Terrorists Help Fight Them?
Trump’s team also favors a militarized approach to immigration enforcement. “Border czar” Tom Homan, who headed immigration enforcement efforts during Trump’s first term, used the phrase “shock and awe” to describe the incoming administration’s plans to address unauthorized migration – an apparent allusion to the US military invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Trump’s pick to head the Department of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem, not only supports using the military for immigration enforcement, she has repeatedly used her authority as governor of South Dakota to send National Guard troops 1,500 kilometers south to help police the border with Mexico.
Border security and immigration are major concerns for many Americans. But the Trump team’s hardline approach could benefit crime groups by creating new opportunities for smugglers and driving up the price of their services.
Moreover, militarization alone cannot solve the problem. Modern criminal organizations are complex and adaptable, and fighting them requires multifaceted, multinational efforts. Focusing almost exclusively on immigration and drugs could take attention away from other important aspects of organized crime, like money laundering.
“There’s so much more on the table in terms of the overall portfolios of some of these organizations,” Gladys McCormick, a professor at Syracuse University who specializes in US-Mexico security relations, told InSight Crime.
Expect Chaos
Although the executive branch has a lot of control over law enforcement, security, and foreign relations, Trump’s implementation of his policy vision is unlikely to be a smooth ride.
Trump may struggle to maintain consistent leadership within the agencies most important to his agenda. His first administration experienced a lot of turnover, and a similar dynamic has played out even before Trump assumes the presidency for a second time.
His first choice for attorney general, former congressman Matt Gaetz, decided not to pursue confirmation after facing allegations that he had a sexual relationship with a minor, and that he had used illicit drugs and illegally paid for sex. Trump later named Pam Bondi, the former Florida attorney general who defended Trump against impeachment during his first term.
He initially picked a Florida sheriff named Chad Chronister as his choice to head the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), but Chronister withdrew his name days after the announcement, saying he did not feel qualified to lead the agency. Trump has not yet named a replacement.
SEE ALSO: Coverage of the US-Mexico Border
Additionally, Trump may be hindered by an uncooperative Congress, which happened at times during his first term. In 2019, for example, Trump failed to secure billions of dollars in funding for additional construction on the “border wall” in the face of strong resistance from Democratic lawmakers.
The new Trump administration will count on a Congress controlled by his Republican party, but even allied lawmakers may not always be on the same page as the president.
“There are sober, experienced Republican politicians of influence that will be around … [and] maybe temper some of the more brash proposals,” said Cris Hernandez-Roy, a senior fellow with the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
Even with chaos at the top, there are some competent, ideologically aligned bureaucrats that might help carry Trump’s preferred policies forward.
“The US bureaucracy is capable of carrying out these tasks,” Gedan said. “The Treasury Department, the Department of Justice, the State Department – they’re well staffed with career professionals who have a great deal of experience and expertise.”
Limited Impact
Despite the aggressive rhetoric of Trump and his cabinet, their approach to tackling organized crime in Latin America is unlikely to yield substantial or lasting changes to criminal dynamics in the region.
A lot of organized crime activity takes place in spaces where the United States has limited influence. For instance, the United States can provide funding, training, and intelligence to Ecuador to help it get its prison situation in order, but it cannot realistically intervene directly.
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Moreover, Trump’s “America First” approach could impede the kind of international cooperation and assistance needed to adequately address the complex phenomenon of organized crime.
Trump’s choice of Rubio for secretary of state, and former US ambassador to Mexico Christopher Landau as deputy secretary of state, suggests the administration will have a strong focus on Latin America. But that focus will largely center on stopping migrants and drugs from reaching the United States, rather than addressing the root causes underlying organized crime.
“It’s not yet clear that the United States will be prioritizing democratic governance and anti-corruption,” Gedan said. “He does not have a strong commitment to the kind of long term institution building that’s necessary to get these countries capable to address organized crime on their own.”
Featured Image: Donald Trump speaks with Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., during a campaign rally in Raleigh, N.C. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
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