
Global Pressure Mounts: Venezuela, Bounties, and Crime

The US wanted poster offering a $25 million reward for information leading to the arrest of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro is the most obvious sign yet of the international screws being tightened on his regime — with profound criminal implications.
Joining Maduro with a $25 million bounty is the regime’s number two, Diosdado Cabello, whose official role is Minister of Interior, Justice, and Peace. Both men have pending US arrest warrants on drug trafficking charges. The long-serving defense minister, General Vladimir Padrino López, has a reward of $15 million for his capture, highlighting the importance the military plays in keeping the Maduro regime in power.
SEE ALSO: How Trump’s Administration Could Reshape Venezuela’s Criminal Landscape
“Padrino López charged drug transportation organizations a protection fee to allow these drug laden aircraft safe passage out of Venezuela. This protection fee was routinely in excess of $60,000. If the protection money was not paid in advance, Padrino López would have the unapproved aircraft destroyed by the Venezuelan military,” read the US Narcotics Reward Program statement.
The United States, United Kingdom, European Union, and Canada have imposed new sanctions on Venezuela since January 10 inauguration of Maduro for a new six-year presidential term. His victory in the widely criticized July 2024 elections — where he claimed 52% of the vote — has been dismissed as manipulated, while the opposition produced tallies from voting machines that showed Edmundo González won a landslide victory.
These nations announcing sanctions, along with some from Latin America like Argentina, Peru and Paraguay, have recognized González as Venezuela’s legitimate president. Maduro’s inauguration was a lonely affair, attended only by the presidents of Cuba and Nicaragua, both autocratic allies.
Since Maduro took over the presidency in 2013 following the death of President Hugo Chávez, Venezuela has plunged into economic free fall and hyperinflation. Despite a modest stabilization in 2024, the regime still teeters on the edge of insolvency and relies on criminal rents to stay afloat. Transparency Venezuela presented an Index of Illicit Economies for 2023, calculating that at least 15% of GDP came from criminal activity.
To manage these criminal economies and maximize income for elements of the so-called Chavista regime, Maduro has set up a system of regulation, creating what InSight Crime describes as a criminal hybrid state.
“The regime’s isolation could indeed lead the Venezuelan government to rely more heavily on organized crime, engage in illicit activities, and further reduce transparency in state management,” Mariano de Alba, a lawyer and specialist in international relations, told InSight Crime. “This is especially likely if the current diplomatic isolation expands into greater economic isolation through the reintroduction of sanctions targeting the oil industry and other productive sectors of the country.”
Assuming that more economic sanctions and international isolation will further cripple Venezuela’s legal economy, Maduro is likely to rely still more on criminal rents to stay in power. This has implications for the global drug trade, human smuggling and trafficking networks and the illegal gold trade. Effects will be felt most directly in neighbors like Colombia.
“There is significant organized crime activity in Venezuela, and as recent experience shows, the government often turns a blind eye in exchange for a share of illicit proceeds,” said de Alba.
InSight Crime Analysis
Much hinges on the position the new administration of President Donald Trump in the United States takes on Venezuela. If he continues the hard-line policies of his first term, then sanctions on Venezuelan oil and gold are likely to force Maduro to use allies like China and Russia to purchase these commodities and illegal international brokers to circumvent sanctions.
Last year, Maduro appointed Álex Saab, a controversial Colombian formerly imprisoned in the United States for money laundering, as his industry minister. Saab is a seasoned operator in both legal and illegal economies and understands how to move money in violation of sanctions. Under his direction, Maduro will look to maximize earnings from oil and gold sales, using every possible maneuver to sidestep sanctions.
With record cocaine production in Colombia and elements of the Maduro regime directly involved in cocaine trafficking, Venezuela’s role in the drug trade will solidify over the coming years. As Venezuela’s incipient role in the production of cocaine expands, with coca crops and drug laboratories now visible along the Colombian border, the country’s importance in the global cocaine trade will increase.
Much of Venezuela’s gold production is in illegal or in irregular hands, and inserting this gold into legal markets is handled by criminal networks moving bullion into neighboring countries and as far afield as Turkey. Gold sales provide another pillar in the Maduro regime’s economic survival.
SEE ALSO: Maduro Inauguration to Consolidate Criminal Regime in Venezuela
Maduro also provides sanctuary and protection to Colombia’s principal rebel group, the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional – ELN), now present in at least eight of Venezuela’s 24 states. This strengthens the group and has likely provided an obstacle, perhaps insurmountable, to Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” plan to bring an end to his country’s six-decade old civil conflict. With Maduro entrenched for another six years, the ELN has little motivation to make peace, prolonging conflict, and criminality in Colombia.
Almost eight million Venezuelans have already fled their homeland looking for opportunities. Faced with the prospect of another Maduro presidency, many more are likely to follow them. Sophisticated human smuggling and trafficking networks have emerged to cater to this flow of Venezuelans, initially through South America and the Caribbean, but more recently headed to the United States.
The most visible criminal face of this phenomenon has been the rise of the former prison gangs, most notably the Tren de Aragua. The Tren de Aragua has become a national security threat to Colombia, Chile, and Peru, engaging in extortion, sex trafficking, and fueling violence. Its most recent effects have been in the United States where it became part of the discourse during the presidential campaign of 2024. With more migration, gangs like the Tren de Aragua will have more victims, more earnings, and more criminal impact on Latin America and the Caribbean.
Featured Image: Wanted posters for Nicolás Maduro and Diosdado Cabello. Credit: US State Dept.
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