In an election dominated by concerns about the rising threat of organized crime, Ecuador voted in current President Daniel Noboa for a full four-year term, during which he will have a chance to create a more coherent anti-crime strategy than the one he employed during his interim presidency.
For the second time in as many years, Noboa, of the National Democratic Action Party (Acción Democrática Nacional – ADN), defeated Luisa González, of the Citizen Revolution (Revolución Ciudadana – RC) party, on April 13. The two had faced off in a 2023 special election.
(Ecuadorians re-elected Daniel Noboa to a four-year term April 13. Photo: Steven Dudley)
Noboa’s double-digit margin of victory was larger than many had expected, since the two had finished neck and neck in the first round in January. However, in a statement made even before the official results had been announced, González claimed there was widespread “fraud” and that she would contest the results.
González did not give any details of this alleged fraud, and several analysts consulted by InSight Crime said they did not expect any widespread unrest given the large margin of victory.
“There were real risks if the results were really tight,” Mauricio Alarcón, director of the Citizen and Development Foundation and Transparency International’s representative in Ecuador, told InSight Crime. “[But] the difference is 10 points, so any call for violence has no substance.”
Notably, the elections took place without any unrest or violence. Much of the country has been under a state of emergency since early 2024, when various criminal organizations launched a series of attacks on security forces, inside prisons, and even took over a television station while it was transmitting live.
The military and police presence was strong in voting centers, and the government’s National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral – CNE) issued its verdict within three hours of the polls closing.
The days leading up to the vote, however, were tense, culminating in a heated debate during which Noboa claimed González had ties to money laundering, and González claimed Noboa’s family company, Noboa Trading, had ties to drug trafficking.
Neither claim was substantiated, but the specter of organized crime continues to hover over the country regardless of the outcome.
InSight Crime Analysis
Now that he has won a full term in office, Noboa will have to create a long-term plan to tackle the country’s most pressing issue: organized crime. To date, he has shown little ability to do this.
While security forces have captured some top criminal leaders and violence dropped in the first two months of 2024, it has since returned to previous levels. And as criminal groups have atomized amid the continued violence and captures, kidnapping and extortion are also on the rise. Meanwhile, criminal groups have killed a number of prison directors.
“I am worried the winning candidate has no clear proposal,” Alarcón said. “Insecurity is not fought with isolated actions, nor with campaign promises. The country needs to see a plan.”
The challenges are daunting. Katherine Herrera, a political scientist and specialist in citizen security, told InSight Crime that recruits were flowing into the arms of criminal groups, who were employing them to extort and kidnap. She added these groups still largely control the prisons, despite Noboa’s decision to use the army to control the criminality in the jail system.
“As long as the heads have control over the penitentiary system, they will continue to operate their illicit economies from there, and their businesses in the prisons as well,” she said.
Among these businesses is, of course, cocaine. Ecuador is a transit nation, and the criminal groups have benefited from the cocaine bonanza in production countries like Colombia. But there are also new criminal economies like illegal gold mining, which large criminal organizations have taken command of throughout Ecuador.
In tandem, these two criminal economies have stretched Ecuador’s security forces to the breaking point. And Noboa has yet to articulate how he plans to mitigate the power of these groups.
Noboa will undoubtedly turn to the United States for help. The president surreptitiously visited President Donald Trump at Trump’s Mar-a–Lago estate in March, and he is reportedly opening the door for US government troops to come to Ecuador and help battle organized crime.
His administration has also reportedly allowed Erik Prince, the defense contractor and Trump ally, to accompany police on raids in violence-ridden Guayaquil. Ecuadorian security officials said they were in talks with Prince to help them fight criminal groups, according to CNN.
The moves, however, seem more desperate than calculated, and reiterate Noboa’s major problem: his lack of a core strategy. While US assistance may help to shore up some gaps, it will be the Ecuadorians who will have to bear the brunt of the fight ahead.
Featured image: Ecuadorian military personnel showed a strong presence during presidential voting April 13. Credit: InSight Crime/Steven Dudley
