The Macquarie Point stadium is the proposed future home of the Tasmania Devils football club.
As one of the biggest and most expensive projects in Tasmania’s history, it has led to protests and unfavourable polling amongst Tasmanians.
The Macquarie Point site of the proposed stadium is ‘shovel ready’, but not yet underway. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
This, coupled with a still vacant Macquarie Point site is creating anxiety amongst AFL club presidents who are starting to question whether Tasmania can uphold its end of the AFL deal.
And, as the clock ticks down towards the Devils’ entry into the AFL, the club presidents and broader public are starting to ask questions.
Why hasn’t stadium construction started?
The site of the proposed stadium is essentially a blank canvas at the moment, with groundworks remediating the land and preparing it for future use.
But despite the stadium being scheduled for completion by 2029, no construction has actually started.
The stadium site is now ready for construction to begin, if the project gets approved. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
That assessment is only due to wrap up on September 16 this year.
A six-person panel is looking through about 5,000 pages of reports and documents compiled by the Macquarie Point Development Corporation, including stadium economic impact reports, heritage assessments, sightline analysis, noise assessment reports, as well as traffic and urban planning scoping and design work.
It’ll all go towards the panel’s report and final recommendation.
The proposed stadium still needs to be approved by Tasmania’s parliament. (Supplied: Macquarie Point Development Corporation)
What happens now?
In the coming weeks, the TPC will issue a draft assessment report on the stadium, providing a window into its thinking so far.
The TPC may give an indicative recommendation, or non-recommendation, depending on the level of information it has received and how convinced it is the project stacks up.
A simulation of AFL match underway at the proposed Macquarie Point stadium, which will have a fixed roof.
From there, stakeholders will have a chance to provide more information and detail via public hearings which will be held mid-year.
Those hearings will inform a final report and recommendation that will be provided to the government in September.
Then, it will go to parliament, where the project must be voted on and pass both the upper and lower houses.
As it stands, the Liberal government and Labor opposition would need at least two of the seven upper house independents to join them and vote in favour.
How those members vote will largely depend on the planning commission’s assessment.
What happens if it doesn’t get past parliament or the TPC?
Pro-stadium people often display stickers showing their opinion on the matter. (ABC News)
On current numbers, the stadium would probably pass with a slim majority, but an unfavourable assessment by the planning commission could see that existing support disappear.
As recently as this week, the AFL continues to be crystal clear: the Macquarie Point stadium is a crucial part of Tasmania’s licence agreement with the league and underpins the entire economic case for the Devils.
If it fails to pass the lower or upper house, the project will be dead and Tasmania’s AFL licence agreement will be void.
Parliamentarians are not only voting for the stadium, but the very existence of the team.
A likely scenario could see the stadium given a soft recommendation to proceed, but with a lengthy list of strict conditions attached.
The stadium would be the home of the Tasmania Devils football team. (Supplied: MPDC)
Why would parliamentarians vote it down? Doesn’t Tasmania want a team?
There are a range of reasons for the opposition, including deep concerns about its impact on the state’s budget, and on the Hobart waterfront.
Some are supportive of a stadium, but in a different location. This has been ruled out by both the state government and the AFL.
An alternative design for the Hobart stadium at Regatta Point, which has been ruled out by the Liberal government and AFL. (Supplied)
A general perception that Tasmania was bullied into signing an unfavourable deal with the AFL also lingers.
Good old-fashioned Tassie parochialism can’t be discounted either, with the large majority of stadium opponents hailing from the state’s north and north-west.
“The stadium is important to us because it is so important to our business model, and we want to provide the best environment for our fans,” Devils chief executive Brendon Gale told the ABC’s Stateline this week.
“The AFL want us to be competitive and they want us to be successful. They are actually setting us up for success,” he said.
Let’s say it gets through. Can it be built by 2029?
Timelines are very tight, but surprisingly, the stadium is only a few months adrift of its original markers, set out early last year.
A planning decision on the stadium was originally expected in June this year — just three months ahead of the current timeline — with construction originally set for December, and practical completion three years later.
The Macquarie Point site is considered shovel-ready, meaning that while it would be tight, it is feasible the stadium could still be completed during the 2029 season, provided it passes parliament.
There is still other work for the government to complete though, including a decision on how the stadium and broader precinct will be delivered, if approved.
It’s currently tossing up if, and how, it will partner with the private sector to deliver the project.
If timelines are to be met, a decision on that must be made very soon.
That decision will also impact the final cost of the stadium and precinct to the taxpayer.
Tasmanians are keen for an AFL team, but less keen for the stadium project. (Supplied: Solstice Digital/Rod Thompson)
Currently, the state government has pledged $375 million toward the build, with a further $240 million coming from the federal government and $15 million from the AFL.
At an estimated cost of $775 million, the government is short by almost $150 million, plus any budget blowouts.
This is the tab it hopes will be picked up by private partners.
What happens if the stadium is not built by 2029?
AFL CEO Andrew Dillon (second from left) with Sports Minister Nic Street (centre) and Macquarie Point Development Corporation CEO Anne Beach at the stadium site. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
Tasmania is scheduled to enter the AFL in 2028, and per its licence agreement with the league, will play games at existing venues Bellerive Oval and York Park in its first year.
If the new stadium is not built by 2029, it will continue to play at the aforementioned existing venues — but at a cost.
For every year it is not playing out of the new stadium, the government must further subsidise the club by an extra $4.5 million.
Rather than penalties paid to the AFL, these payments are a condition of the licence agreement called the “operational funding top-up” and are paid to the Devils to make up for revenues lost from not playing in a 23,000-seat venue.
Reports this week suggesting the AFL would allow a second vote amongst the club presidents on Tasmania’s inclusion were off the mark.
Tasmania’s contract with the AFL does not have any provisions that allow for a second vote, but it does have allowances for negotiations to take place between the two parties if looming timelines are under threat.
If the deal is broken, and talks between the government and league completely broke down, the commission and presidents would come into play — but there would be no second vote.
