Drug trafficking out of Venezuela predates Nicolás Maduro and will long outlive him. The question is whether the cocaine trade will continue to be managed and regulated by the Chavista regime, or whether Maduro’s removal will weaken state-embedded drug trafficking.
“So long as Venezuela sits right alongside the source of most of the world’s cocaine, and so long as it remains impossible to guarantee the rule of law and territorial control, the drugs will continue to flow, whether you call that the Cartel de los Soles or not,” said Phil Gunson, a journalist and analyst who has resided in Venezuela for more than 25 years.
*This article is the sixth in a six-part investigation, “Cocaine and Venezuela’s Cartel of the Suns Post-Maduro,” exploring the current drug trafficking dynamics in Venezuela, the nature of the Cartel of the Suns, and their future without Maduro. Read the full investigation here.
The Cartel of the Suns, which existed before Maduro took power, remains untouched by his departure. Indeed, if the Cartel of the Suns has any cohesive central leadership, it is embodied by the long-time Defense Minister General Vladimir Padrino and the current Minister of the Interior Diosdado Cabello.
And Cabello is in charge of the country’s fight against the drug trade.
“We have dealt successive, devastating blows to the drug trade; they know that drugs are not passing through here at this time”
Cabello said in January, denying the existence of the Cartel of the Suns.
“We have dealt successive, devastating blows to the drug trade; they know that drugs are not passing through here at this time,” he said in January, denying the existence of the Cartel of the Suns.
Corruption in the military is now institutionalized. While there is economic reactivation being pushed by the United States and the new president, Delcy Rodríguez, military wages remain extremely low, less than $200 a month for a senior officer. And the cost of living in Venezuela, which is increasingly dollarized, is more expensive than neighboring Colombia, where the minimum wage is over $450. Members of the security forces and government employees need access to other revenue to survive. This is unlikely to change in the short term and will continue to feed the system of corruption across institutions of the state.
Delcy Rodríguez was a key player in Maduro’s system of hybrid criminal governance before assuming the presidency, whereby senior members of the Chavista regime and generals were given access to criminal rents, or received government contracts, in return for loyalty. Indeed, General Cliver Alcalá, now serving a sentence for drug trafficking in the United States and a member of the Cartel of the Suns, described Delcy Rodríguez and her brother Jorge, currently President of the National Assembly, as “the true architects of the Venezuelan dictatorial regime.”
Delcy Rodríguez has been linked to corruption schemes steering government contracts to close friends, allegedly in return for kickbacks, and has attracted the attention of the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) for alleged involvement in drug trafficking.
There are other powerful criminal drivers that suggest that drug trafficking in and through Venezuela will continue unfettered:
Colombia is producing record amounts of cocaine, and in the midst of an election year where few changes to policy are expected, drug production is likely to only increase.
One of Colombia’s top cocaine producing zones, the area of Catatumbo in Norte de Santander department, lies on the Venezuelan border. Historically, most of its production has moved into Venezuela.
The Colombian rebel group, the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional – ELN), which has presence in at least eight of Venezuela’s 24 states, is deeply involved in the drug trade and is the principal supplier for drug trafficking in Venezuela. It is stronger than ever and has deep ties to the Chavista regime and elements of the Venezuelan military.
Europe has now overtaken the United States as the principal market for cocaine. Many of the drug smuggling routes to Europe, via the Caribbean and West Africa, pass through Venezuela.
Venezuela has become a cocaine-producing nation, with industrial-sized coca fields and drug processing laboratories manufacturing high purity cocaine.
There is now an established drug smuggling infrastructure in Venezuela and the presence of international buyers. History shows that once established, this infrastructure is hard to uproot.
All the Venezuela organs of state have been penetrated by corruption, and none of the democratic checks and balances remain in place, ensuring that there is no transparency, and the justice system is utterly compromised. Even if there were a will to tackle crime and corruption in Venezuela, there currently are no tools with which to take effective measures.
However, drug trafficking dynamics have already been impacted by US activity in Venezuela and the Caribbean. The presence of US naval assets in the Caribbean, and the missile strikes on maritime vessels allegedly carrying drugs have resulted in a shift in smuggling routes.
Venezuela’s Caribbean coast has seen a drop in drug trafficking activity, according to sources consulted along the northern seaboard. The use of go-fast vessels across the eastern Caribbean also appears to have fallen. Since the deployment of US naval resources in the Caribbean the Venezuelan security forces have increased pressure on drug trafficking activity there, even operations previously sanctioned by corrupt Chavista officials.
All this has not, however, stopped the flow of cocaine in and through Venezuela, but it has impacted routes and impacted the methods by which cocaine is being smuggled. Evidence suggests that while the northern route with departure points, the southern route to the eastern seaboard and down into Guyana and Suriname remains open. Sources in Guyana suggest that there has been an increase in cocaine trafficking with an increase in seizures.
Washington does now have marked influence over Venezuela, especially the Rodríguez siblings who now govern thanks to US support. However, this should not be overstated. US pressure may prompt the Rodríguez siblings to better disguise corruption and the activity of the Cartel of the Suns, yet Washington’s focus seems to be more on getting the oil flowing and reactivating the economy than working towards a change in government, the reestablishment of democracy and the fight against the drug trade.
With the departure of the USS Gerald Ford Carrier Group, and the clear reluctance of Congress and the MAGA (Make America Great Again) base to engage in long-term military operations and the deployment of troops, US leverage on the Chavista regime appears restricted to economic pressure. Drug traffickers will now be literally testing the waters in the Caribbean again with the departure of the naval flotilla. The fact that the entire top echelon of the Venezuelan government is implicated in criminal activity and represents the Old Guard of the regime suggests that Washington’s room for maneuver on the drug trafficking front is limited.
The removal of Maduro has done little to change the dynamics of drug trafficking in Venezuela. While the Chavista regime remains in power, Cartel of the Sun leaders like Diosdado Cabello remain in office, and drug-trafficking Colombian rebels continue operation in Venezuela unmolested, the cocaine trade will continue – and may even grow.
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